My Attempt in Timing the Market

Three year chart of the PSEi:
PSE1

A-     New all time high for the PSE index due to foreign buying.

B-      Technical correction

C-      Earnings season

D-     Greece debt crisis bail out

E-      Debt ceiling debate

F-      Greece exit fears

G-     Aversion of fiscal cliff

 

A close-up view on the events between D and E (between June 1, 2011 to November 1, 2011):

PSE2

A – Greece debt crisis resolution

 

B – Downgrade of US credit rating by S&P

 

C – Debt ceiling debate

 

A look on where we are now:

PSE3

A – Fiscal Cliff fears

B – Aversion of fiscal cliff

 

Two months from now there will again be a debate regarding the debt ceiling. Is it reasonable to speculate that the price action will be the same as that of July 1, 2011 to October 3, 2011?

My take is buying stocks that are cheap relative to their 2012 projected earnings, recession proof, and generates attractive dividend yield and set aside cash should there be a correction similar to what happened in 2011.

 

 

Disclaimer: Not an expert and nothing I say should be taken as a recommendation to BUY or SELL.

Stock Market, Stock Thoughts: GREEN, PRC

Stock Market

Yehey! Wohoo!:)

http://www.interaksyon.com/business/52107/psei-breaches-6000-mark

GREEN

I still believe that price action for GREEN will be in the 1H of this year. They have no choice; they have investment commitments to fulfil.  🙂

PRC

Anybody who is willing to bet for PHES because of the Ayala’s entering in a joint venture with them is better off buying PRC.

Aggressive buybacks and management has an incentive if they present higher earnings.

More here:

https://fundamentalenthusiast.wordpress.com/2012/08/08/case-study-prc/

 

Copper, Stock Thoughts: PSEi

Copper

What is the logic of copper going up after the “fiscal cliff” fear was over?

It means that the US economy will avoid going into recession. Good economy means sustained construction of infrastructures. Understand that copper price is positively correlated to construction. More construction means more demand for copper thus translates to higher prices.

http://www.lme.com/copper_industryusage.asp

PSEi

My wild guess is PSEi will go down when debt ceiling issue will surface 2 months from now:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/ceos-give-u-s-politicians-incomplete-grade-on-fiscal-cliff-work.html

My opinion only.

How to insulate your portfolio if you are fearful about the global economy?

My opinion is buying stocks whose earnings are unaffected regardless of the status of economy. A good example would be companies that offer essential products or are in a bilateral contract with a strong company to sell 100% of their product.

Way back 2008, during the credit crunch, what do you think is the best company to invest in? My answer: Companies that can expand even without the aid of financing. 🙂

What I learned, Stock Thoughts: PSEi, MER, TSI, GREEN, LPZ

In my experience in the stock market I realized that what I needed are:

  1. Research and analytical skills (included here is good interpersonal skill)
  2. Portfolio management
  3. Managing psychological responses

As we go on in the years to come and look back to what we are doing here now, we will marvel on how much we had improved.

I am a humble student of the stock market (and forever will be) and I will look forward on hearing your thoughts regarding your learning and experiences in the stock market. 🙂

 

PSEi

Just yesterday the market was saying that they do not mind the high PE ratio because Philippine companies have promising growth potential.

Now it’s saying that the market is trading at high PE multiples and should correct.

My guess is that when it is going to be red on Monday, market would say that it is down due to fiscal cliff woes.

Mr. Market, Mr. Market, Mr. Market

 

MER

Battered to as low as 258. I find it unreasonable.

 

TSI

Backdoor rumor!!!  lol

 

GREEN

New Directors!

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosures/2012/pdf/dc2012-9020_GREEN.pdf

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/2012/GREEN_23A_12142012.pdf

Google them, they appear to have the wealth of experience.

 

LPZ

Price action does not worry me a bit.