Globalport 900 (PORT) – Possible Oil Logistics Play (?)

Globalport 900, Inc. (PORT, the Company) has the following subsidiaries:

PORT1

PORT exhibited growth for 2013 and it is not just full year recognition of earnings. See chart below:

PORT2

*2012 earnings of 252 million is the consolidated earnings assuming full year consolidation in 2012[1]

PORT managed to generate earnings more than 2012 earnings as early as the third quarter of 2013 because of high revenues and improving margins.

However, things may be different for PORT when Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada announced on April 2, 2014 that the three oil firms should relocate from Pandacan. [2]

HCPTI and MNHPI are located in Manila Bay.

PORT3

The Pandacan oil depot relocation debacle stretches way back 2001. [3] On November 30, 2010, Petron Corporation (PCOR) filed a manifestation informing the Supreme Court (SC) that it had decided to cease operation of its petroleum product storage facilities in Pandacan within five (5) years or not later than January 2016. [4] On January 3, 2011, PCOR entered into a share sale and purchase agreement with HCPTI for the purchase of 35% in MNHPI. [5] The reason why PCOR acquired 35% interest of MNHPI is due to the location of MNHPI relative to PCOR’s Limay, Bataan refinery.PORT4

It could be noted that Shell and Chevron are decided not to relocate from Pandacan. [6] The reason is that both companies use pipelines to transport petroleum products from their Batangas facility to Manila. [7] However, with Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada demanding all the three companies to move out of Pandacan, Shell and Chevron may just be forced to relocate to a nearby facility which may be PCOR-PORT’s MNHPI.

MNHPI developments are right on schedule with new North Harbor terminal opening on October 9, 2013. [8] MNHPI has a finger-pier scheme as shown below:

PORT5

MNHPI intends to consolidate the finger-piers into only three terminals: [9]PORT6

In a presentation of MNHPI in January 31, 2013, MNHPI intends to finish terminal 1 as soon as August 2014, [10] which is timely to PCOR’s relocation from Pandacan.

PORT7

There are many unknown factors in forecasting PORT’s earnings assuming that the three oil companies will relocate to MNHPI. Thus, the best strategy is to wait and see should the event happen and forecast earnings from there.

Calculation of estimated 2013 earnings is shown below:

PORT8

With an estimated EPS of 0.18 for 2013, PORT is trading at 45x PE ratio at last traded price of P8.15. At 45x PE and with the Manila day time truck ban [11] to pose a threat on PORT’s growth, PORT appears to be overvalued.

 

Source:

  1. Note 6, SEC 17-A 2012, http://goo.gl/LPokPP
  2. Estrada gives 3 oil firms until January 2016 to relocate depots from Pandacan, http://www.interaksyon.com/article/84024/estrada-gives-3-oil-firms-until-january-2016-to-relocate-depots-from-pandacan
  3. TIMELINE: Pandacan oil depot relocation debacle, http://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/54779-timeline-pandacan-oil-depot-relocation-debacle
  4. PCOR SEC 17-A 2012, Pandacan cases, p. 28, http://goo.gl/6ileJW
  5. PCOR SEC 17-A 2011, note 11, p. 108
  6. Shell says oil depot to stay put in Pandacan, www.interaksyon.com/business/65949/shell-says-oil-depot-to-stay-put-in-pandacan
  7. Industry structure, http://www2.doe.gov.ph/DO/InStruct.htm
  8. New North Harbor terminal opens, http://business.inquirer.net/146719/new-north-harbor-terminal-opens#ixzz2yB7ktb4Z
  9. Port Development Through Public-Private Sector Partnership, slide 42, http://goo.gl/rcvTce
  10. MNHPI Presentation to the 7th Philippine Ports and Shipping 2013 on Modernizing Port Facilities, Equipment & Systems to Service Domestic Shipping, http://goo.gl/xDeqUI
  11. Mixed reaction to a truck ban in Manila, http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=Mixed-reaction-to-a-truck-ban-in-Manila&id=85683

 

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be an expert and nothing I say should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell. Read more in the ABOUT page.

Disclosure: I own PORT shares