Introducing FE Website!

My eagerness to learn in stock investing and to impart my learnings had lead me to start blogging on this site two years ago. This site had indeed help me to grow and evolve into a better stock investor.

The process of researching is tedious but organizing and presenting the information in an easy to comprehend way is the most challenging. But the readers and commenters of my articles had inspired me to improve my post through enhancing my researching and analytical skills. And as I look back, I believe that I have done pretty well. In fact my big winners were:intro1

However, just like an old saying goes, in every beginning there is an ending and in every ending there is a new beginning. I thank all of the readers that offered their support and constructive criticisms to me. After two years, you had all helped me to become a better stock investor and blogger. And as I become bolder and wiser, I am inviting all of you to walk with me in my new blog site www.FEsealpoint.com and allow me to still be part of your stock investment journey.

This site will not only showcase unparalleled stock picking and trend analysis but I will also present the rationale on my personal stock selections and portfolio allocation. I believe that an investment process is affected by the following factors:

  1. Technique
  2. Portfolio allocation
  3. Investment psychology parallel

The site intends to share my stock investment process and to teach the readers the enumerated above three factors. For my journey to acquire my current stock picking skills was not easy. There are numerous bumps and hurdles along the way that I need to pass. But I was able to do things right because I have first done it not right.

I do not believe an investing acumen can be taught nor can it be emulated (if so then everybody would be Warren Buffett). One must find their own investing personality, get into the market and accumulate personal experience. But I do believe that other than personal experience, learning from other’s success and failure is one of the best way to learn. Thus, I hope that you will allow me to extend what I have learn to you through supporting me of my new endeavor.

Goodbye for now and see you soon at www.FEsealpoint.com!

Happy investing!

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Funny, Stock thoughts: ORE, Strengthened Peso

Funny

I read this printed in the shirt of someone:

“Some say WE CANNOT LIVE WITHOUT LOVE, I think oxygen is more important.”

 

ORE

The spill incident by ORE’s subsidiary Citinickel is not financially damaging for the Company:

http://www.rappler.com/business/special-report/whymining/whymining-latest-stories/20099-another-mine-spill-govt-penalizes-citinickel-in-palawan

A fine of not more than P600k? What is that to a company that earns 500 million and generates 200+ million free cash flows?

 

Strengthened Peso

Strengthened peso damages the margins of some companies like I-Remit but it also benefits some companies.

The obvious business activity that will benefit on the strengthened peso is importation. Strengthened peso can also benefit a company’s balance sheet if it has substantial debt that is in foreign currency.

Find your next investment opportunity by asking yourself these questions:

What company imports and sells it here in the Philippines?

What company has huge foreign debt?

Happy hunting! 🙂

 

PSEi, Stock and Family, Speculative vs. Investment

PSEi

Index at all time high again and trading at high multiples.

When should one be worried? You should be worried if the company that you are investing does not have any promise of future earnings growth.

Is it time to buy?

I’m patiently waiting.

Stocks and Family

Last December 2011, Me and my client allocated plenty AAI. As some of you might have remembered it was very volatile at 25~35 range. During Christmas and New Year, we find our portfolio at negative 50%. I feel bad about it and have that unusual feeling in my stomach. I enjoyed the moment with my family but my mind just reverts back to my stock.

January 2012, I sold all my AAI stock for a 100% profit.

From that date on, I limit my speculative holdings to just 20% of my portfolio and I learned to disconnect my ego from my bank account. Never again an activity I passionately do distract me in my time for my family!

 

Speculative vs. Invesmtment

What exactly is a speculative and what is an investment?

A stock purchased for speculative and for investment purpose does not differ on the time frame but on the amount of information available prior to the purchase that can promise us safety and returns for our capital.

Stocks I consider an Investment

FGEN, AGI, PCOR, CHIB, and EDC are companies that allow us to project their earnings based on the readily available information that only requires number crunching.

Let’s have FGEN, FGEN derives 90% of their earnings from sale of electricity to MER. Electricity demand is almost certain not to decline dramatically so we can easily project FGEN’s earnings in the coming years.

Stocks I consider Speculative

LPZ, APX, GREEN are speculative.

APX is speculative since the mineral reserve estimates are not yet disclosed and that we are not sure if the increase in APX’s capacity can be met by APX’s reserve. Current APX reserve can only last for 5 years should the capacity be tripled.

LPZ is speculative since GLO buying LPZ’s BTI is in the mind of GLO’s decision maker.

GREEN is speculative since we have no comparable operating years to project earnings.

Why did I buy these shares?

Because, IMHO, the odds are very much skewed to the speculator’s favor. 🙂

APX to announce a substantial mineral resource is very likely.

LPZ’s BTI to be eventually purchased by GLO is very likely.

GREEN’s management declaring property dividends to increase shareholder value is very likely.