Learning from Tycoons, Mike Ferrer, Stock thoughts: EDC, AT, MER, VITA

Learning from Tycoons

A good On the Money Episode:



Mike Ferrer

A new column written by Mike Ferrer:

Invisible hand

If there is somebody worth the trouble of subscribing to Businessworld online, it would be Mike Ferrer. He is the president and managing director of ATR KimEng Asset Management.  🙂


P. 2/S3 or p. 22 of the .pdf file.



EDC 2012 core net income* increased by 89%.


The reported net income of 9.89 B is only 6% higher than my estimated earnings. EPS to be reported will more likely to be at the same level as presented in the stock report below.

More on EDC:


*Core net income means net income excluding one-time gains or losses.



AT core income up by 46%.


P2.5B reported income is close to my projected earnings of P2.6B. EPS to be reported will more likely to be at the same level as presented in the stock report below.

More on AT:




MER reported consolidated core net income of 17B 7% lower of my projected 18B net income.


See stock report:



MER’s dividend policy should come as no surprise. MPI, the majority shareholder, is in need of cash flows. Where do you think they should source additional cash?



You might be interested in this case study:




Amazing, My brother, Stock Thoughts: AT, VMC


Do you have five minutes to spare? Watch Chris Camillo’s interview in Bloomberg, the guy who turned $20k to $2 million.


Does his investment technique match your personality? Take only what is useful for your investment.


My brother

My brother is a mechanical engineer who now is already an MBA (he graduated last October). How can he take MBA despite his time demanding day job?!

Oh yeah right. I should start by not complaining about the constraints and be composed mentally and approach the problem at hand systematically. *inhale deep* *exhale slowly*



Surprising disclosure from AT:


Or is it really surprising?

89.92 million lbs. Cu and 12,333 troy oz. of gold will generate an EPS of P1.25~P1.30 for AT using the following assumptions:

Cu – $3.65

Gold – $1,600/ troy oz.

Profit margin – 20%

Forex rate – P40/$


Just meeting my projections here:


Meeting my projected EPS yet valued way above my projected valuation. Definitely overvalued.

My opinion only.

Adjusting my hypothetical conservative portfolio.



The company attracted me due to its deleveraging activities and diversification of revenue source through its entry to the power industry. I discovered VMC’s plan of entry in the power industry while doing my due diligence in GREEN last December but I only initiated position after Premier Network bought 20%+ interest of VMC from a huge shareholder that has been selling down VMC shares since the lifting of trading suspension.

More here:


Funny, Luck We Have Tetangco, Stock Thoughts: AT, NIKL, ORE


I find this cartoon funny:



Lucky We Have Tetangco

He is the reason why we have a good financial system.




AT, NIKL, and ORE are bound to rise should China recover due to the increase in demand of metals like nickel. Luckily, it is almost certain that China will present growth in GDP and it would be through more government spending.

Anybody new to macroeconomics go here:


AT nearing my target price of 20.90.

More here:


ORE doing good too. 🙂


Stock Thoughts: FGEN vs GTCAP, AT, PX, EDC


Now I see how GTCAP and FGEN are equally valued.

After wondering why FGEN is battered and GTCAP enjoying the spot light, I reviewed my analysis regarding the two companies. I conservatively estimate GTCAP to recognize an EPS of 31.57 while FGEN was originally estimated to have an EPS of 1.01 for 2012 but since 3Q EPS already stands at 1.73 let’s use 1.80.

GTCAP at its current price commands a PE ratio of 21x and FGEN at 12x PE.

Oh! Wait, did I say equally valued?



Before I had my severe eye strain I was digging on this company and finally released it in December 11 to my clients.

Luckily just yesterday, Carmen Copper, a wholly owned subsidiary of AT declared P1 B cash div and probably served as a catalyst to push the price up to its value of 18.75 for 2013.

Hmmm, I wonder how far the price of AT could go if copper prices peak in 1Q or 2Q of 2013?

(I release stock reports in my blog or in traderscamp with a week delay)



Everybody knows that the price of PX would go up again once the Company resumes its commercial operation in 2H of 2013 but everybody too is waiting for the bottom. Lol

I won’t be surprise if it plunges again on the news that it pays P1 B for environmental damages.

Should you be worried? The answer is no. They can pay.



EDC’s price battered to as low as 6.65? It doesn’t make sense. My guess is this is due to delay of the Bacman Geothermal power plant.