Fiscal Cliff, Stock Thoughts: AGI, TA

Fiscal Cliff

Ok. Everything is alright… for now. Let’s wait for 2 months and fear will again ensue regarding this matter.

In my opinion, we should acknowledge the psychology of incentives. Who would like to be blamed for the recession of their country? Obviously it will be alright.

(Warning: oversimplified rationale)



Nothing but looking at a stock I sold (not in my own account) at 16.40~16.68 soar to 16.80. Anyway, a gain is a gain.



Wohoo! TA exceeded my valuation of 1.27 due to this disclosure:

What does it mean?

The transaction will cause an incremental EPS of .06.

Since we have no 2012 EPS yet, let’s assume that TA’s adjusted 2011 EPS is the same for 2013 at .10. Adjusted EPS of TA for 2013 will be .16 (.10 + .06) in 2013.

How to calculate the incremental EPS?

TA power has 532 M net income in 2011 and only half of that is earned by TA. What I did is consider the other 50% of the 532 M and divide by 4.3 billion shares and I get the incremental EPS of .06.

Tell me if my math is wrong.




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